Future Rockets-Expendable Launch Vehicles

Is there a future for Rockets (Expendable launch Vehicles)?

For the time being, the future looks bright for Rockets due to the collapse of Reusable Launch Program Initiatives! However, alot of new rockets are entering the scene and the market might not have enough room since the low earth orbit market seems to be fading because company's such as Iridium are in financial difficulties.

Reusable launch Vehicles such as the Pioneer Rocketpalne and the Roton have tremendous potential if only NASA had added them to their X-Programs. I am positive that private investors would pursue RLV development with their own initiative as long as there are potential markets! Its up to NASA. If RLV's were developed, they would definitely wipeout the low end of the satellite launcher market.

ROCKET PROGRESS

Soyuz and Zenit (Sea launch) may have a future due to their reliability and have strong consortiums backing them! The Ariane-5, Atlas III, Proton, Delta 4 fleet will definitely have a future! With regard to Japan's H-2a, once reliability has been achieved and launch costs are reduced, I am sure it will do well. The Titan-4B will probably be cancelled in 2005 due to its high operating cost. I suggest they produce a Titan-5 and utilize Saturn-V F-1 engines and implement them in a modular way like the new Angara/Atlas V/Delta IV.

In the future, the Angara Launch System will take over the Proton. Proton's technology should be maintained and used as a Space Asteroid Interceptor because it uses storble propellants and has the necessary payload specifications to achieve this goal.

PROMOTING SPACE COMMERCIALIZATION

NASA, ESA, NASDA and Partners need to fully commerialize the ISS Crew Delivery and Cargo Delivery. This will give the market a kickstart. This will give the RLV developers a potential and lucrative market. Nasa's stubborness to maintain the US Space Shuttle is hindering our progress due to its exorbidant launch price! If Nasa could reduce the cost below 100 million US Dollars, then I would say maintain the Shuttle. The simple solution is to build a small Space Taxi that can be launched on an Expendable Rocket or create the proposed Liquid Flyback Boosters and use them with a SpacePlane.

Nasa and Partners should create a Global Space Agency. The partners should have an annual Space Meeting where they can discuss and plan ahead. Possible topics that could be discussed are:

- Commerical Launches to Lunar Orbit
- Developing a Luna Base
- Orbital Transfer Vehicles
- Heavy Launch Vehicle that could be used sending Human Explorers to Near Earth Asteriods and even Mars.

Conclusion

For the next 10 years, there will be a future market for Rockets (Expendable launch Vehicles) especially in the Geostationary Market. If RLV's are produced with efficient launch costs, they will replace expendable rockets.

Written By Vic Stathopoulos Tuesday, 1st August, 2000

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